Miami are still No. 1 in the AP Top 25 after Saturday’s 52-23 win over Pittsburgh, but ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks the Hurricanes only third nationally. It is a useful reminder that, for all the excitement around this team, there are still bigger tests ahead.
Miami’s place in the human polls looks stronger than ever. The Hurricanes picked up 59 first-place votes in the latest AP Top 25 and remain unbeaten at 7-0. They are also 5-0 in the ACC, scoring points for fun and looking far more complete than most teams in the country.
Why the FPI sees Miami differently
But the more interesting talking point this morning is the contrast with ESPN’s FPI.
That model has Miami third, behind Ohio State and Notre Dame. It is worth saying clearly that FPI is not a résumé ranking. It is a predictive model. It is trying to tell you who it thinks is strongest going forward, not who has earned the best position so far.
That still makes it interesting.
Because when a team is No. 1 in the country and another respected measure still puts them third, it tells you the debate around Miami is not settled. The Hurricanes are being rewarded for what they have done. The model is asking what happens when the schedule gets tougher.
And it is about to.
FPI gives Miami an 89.8% chance of beating North Carolina this weekend, but only a 40.6% chance of winning at Notre Dame on 7 November. That is the one that jumps out.
Miami can talk all it wants about being the top team in the country, and the AP voters clearly believe it right now, but the next fortnight offers the chance to remove any doubt. Beat North Carolina, then go to South Bend and win, and the conversation changes again.
That is why I quite like this as a Monday talking point. It is not anti-Miami. It is more of a reality check. The Hurricanes have earned their position. Now they need to defend it against the sort of games that shape a season.
North Carolina comes first
There is also one recruiting development worth keeping an eye on today. 2027 running back Tranard Roberts is due to announce his decision, with Miami among his finalists alongside North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio State. At the time of writing, nothing official has been announced.
In terms of the team news, there is no major new official injury update confirmed early this morning. Xavier Lucas remains someone to watch after leaving the Pittsburgh game, while the offensive line continues to be worth monitoring as Miami begin preparing for Chapel Hill.
From a UK point of view, Saturday’s kick off is at least slightly kinder than it could have been. Miami at North Carolina starts at 11:30pm UK time on Saturday 31 October. Because the clocks have already changed here but not yet in the United States, we get a temporary four-hour gap instead of the usual five. Small wins.
The bigger point is that North Carolina now feels important in two ways. First, Miami have lost their last five against the Tar Heels, which is a streak that badly needs ending. Second, this is the game before Notre Dame. If the Hurricanes want to go into South Bend unbeaten and fully in control of the national conversation, they need to handle business first.
The Last Word from Across the Pond
Being No. 1 is brilliant. Being told by the numbers that you are not quite No. 1 yet is useful. Miami do not need to be offended by that. They need to use it. The Hurricanes have done all the right things so far, but the next step is proving they can carry that standard into the hardest part of the schedule. If this team really is the best in the country, the next two weeks are where it starts becoming undeniable.
